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NOAA, in a very rare fit of honesty, admitted in its 2008 report that 15 years or more without global warming would demonstrate a discrepancy between prediction and observation.The reason for NOAA’s statement is that there is supposed to be a sharp and significant instantaneous response to a radiative forcing such as adding CO2 to the air.Figure 1a: Models predict rapid initial warming in response to a forcing. The current el Niño, as Bob Tisdale’s distinguished series of reports here demonstrates, is at least as big as the Great el Niño of 1998.
However, the much-altered surface tamperature datasets show a small warming rate (Fig. Bearing in mind that one-third of the 2.4 W m radiative forcing from all manmade sources since 1750 has occurred during the period of the Pause, a warming rate equivalent to little more than 1 C°/century is not exactly alarming. Merely because there has been little or no warming in recent decades, one may not draw the conclusion that warming has ended forever.
The hiatus period of 18 years 9 months is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.
The start date is not cherry-picked: it is calculated.
The graph of Roe’s model output shows that the initial expected response to a forcing is supposed to be an immediate and rapid warming.
But, despite the very substantial forcings in the 18 years 9 months since February 1997, not a flicker of warming has resulted. At the Heartland and Philip Foster events in Paris, I shall reveal in detail the three serious errors that have led the models to over-predict warming so grossly.
The trend lines measure what has occurred: they do not predict what will occur.